Sunday, December 02, 2007

Strange brew: craft growth vs. perception

I had an interesting discussion a few days ago with a person in the wine industry. He was wondering how the craft beer industry was doing ... in light of its many closures. Hmmm?

Perception, if not everything, does indeed count for a lot.

Craft beer shipments for the first 6 months of 2007 were up 11%. (Totals for the year are expected to be similar.) And that follows 12% growth last year. Despite such prima facie evidence, the CEO of SAB/Miller has also predicted a craft beer crash.

Huh?

From the Brewers Association:

Growth of the craft beer industry was 12% by volume for 2006.

The craft beer industry eclipsed 6.7 million barrels of craft beer produced in the U.S. in 2006.

The fastest growing craft beer sector in 2006 was microbreweries (up 16%), showing customer support for local breweries.

Craft beer is the fastest growing segment for supermarket scan data. 17.8% growth was stronger than all other alcohol beverage categories.

Craft beer sales share is 3.20% by volume and 4.99 % by dollars.

Craft beer industry sales have grown 31.5% over the last 3 years.

Total U.S. Craft Beer Industry Annual Dollar Volume: $4.7 billion.

Contrast craft's growth with that of Anheuser-Busch this year. Morgan-Stanley had been projecting a whopping 1% growth for A-B in the 4th quarter.

Actual sales were only up 1/2% over the same period in 2006.

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